Research

Prediction-market research and scoring framework.

Beatpoly's research library covers the mechanics behind prediction-market reliability: resolution risk, execution cost, cross-venue equivalence, market integrity, and the public scoring methodology behind the enterprise product.

View Reliability Engine → Scoring Methodology
Research Categories

What Beatpoly publishes

Beatpoly research covers the structural mechanics of event-contract markets — not trading signals. Each category supports a scoring dimension in the reliability engine.

📋
Resolution Risk
How contract wording, resolution sources, oracle design, and settlement timing affect whether a market resolves cleanly and in line with plain-English intent.
Live — scored per market 📈
Execution Quality
Spread, depth, slippage, fee sensitivity, and maker/taker dynamics. Why the displayed price is not always the price you can use, and how to quantify the difference.
Live — scored per market ⇌
Cross-Venue Equivalence
Why similar markets on Kalshi and Polymarket are often not equivalent trades. Wording differences, source differences, cutoff differences, and basis risk quantification.
Live — scored per market 🔎
Market Integrity
Abnormal flow detection, concentration signals, pre-catalyst movement, wallet clustering, and integrity risk patterns in event-contract markets.
Live — scored per market 📚
Methodology & Audit Standards
Every scoring dimension documented with inputs, high-risk examples, and an explicit audit standard for published statistics. Dataset cards published when ready.
Documented 📄
Market Structure Education
Free research library explaining prediction-market mechanics: resolution criteria, execution cost, expected value, market psychology, and reliability risk.
11 articles live
Scoring Framework

How reliability is measured

Beatpoly's reliability engine evaluates every monitored market across four dimensions, each scored as a risk score from 0–100 where higher means more risk. The composite A–F reliability rating converts all four into one directional signal.

Scores are designed for machine-readable integration — not just human dashboards. Every score comes with an evidence trail showing which inputs drove it.

Full Methodology → API Schema
01
Resolution Risk
Wording, source dependency, oracle design, settlement timing
→ 02
Execution Risk
Spread, depth, slippage, fees, fill probability
→ 03
Cross-Venue Basis Risk
Wording, source, cutoff, settlement process differences
→ 04
Abnormal Flow Risk
Concentration, pre-catalyst movement, wallet clustering
→
Market Structure Education

Research library articles

Free articles explaining prediction-market mechanics — the public layer behind the enterprise product. Each article is written for analysts, researchers, and professional teams, not for retail trading.

Browse All Articles →
Case Study — Resolution Risk · April 2026
The Paris Weather Bet: A Case Study in Prediction Market Resolution Risk
How suspicious temperature spikes at a Météo-France sensor exposed single-source resolution risk, source fragility, and market integrity patterns in Polymarket weather contracts.
Resolution Risk
Track 1 — Contract Mechanics
How Prediction Market Contracts Work
Resolution rules, implied probability, oracle risk, and why the price is not always the probability.
Resolution
Track 1 — Contract Mechanics
Kalshi vs. Polymarket: Why Similar Markets Are Often Different Trades
Cross-venue basis risk, wording differences, source dependencies, and why price gaps are usually not arbitrage.
Cross-Venue
Track 2 — Execution Quality
Expected Value in Prediction Markets
EV basics, fee-adjusted edge, and why a positive-looking EV can be negative after execution cost.
Execution
Track 3 — Market Reliability
Four Biases That Distort Prediction-Market Prices
Partition dependence, salience overreaction, execution friction bias, and narrative anchoring.
Integrity
Track 1 — Contract Mechanics
What Is a Prediction Market?
Event contracts, contract structure, implied probability, and the difference between markets and gambling.
Fundamentals
Coming Soon

Planned research publications

In Progress
Resolution Risk Dataset Card
Venue coverage, date range, sample methodology, and exclusion criteria for Beatpoly's resolution-direction research.
In Progress
Market Reliability Reports
Periodic reports on reliability patterns across monitored markets — resolution risk trends, execution cost changes, and cross-venue divergence.
Planned
Market Integrity Case Studies
Documented examples of abnormal flow patterns, concentration signals, and pre-catalyst movement in event-contract markets.

Access the reliability engine.

Enterprise API access for market monitoring, risk scoring, cross-venue analysis, and reliability-based data enrichment.

Request API Access → View Platform