Prediction-market prices are becoming public signals — used by funds, journalists, analysts, and risk teams. But a market price is not automatically reliable. Beatpoly adds the missing layer: resolution risk, liquidity quality, cross-venue equivalence, and market integrity, scored per market.
Built for funds, compliance teams, media desks, research firms, and data platforms using prediction-market signals professionally.
Score convention: Risk scores (resolution risk, abnormal flow) run 0–100 where higher = more risk. Quality scores (liquidity quality) run 0–100 where higher = stronger quality. The composite A–F reliability rating converts all dimensions into one directional signal.
A market showing 64% does not necessarily mean the world has a reliable 64% probability of that outcome.
The price may reflect shallow liquidity. It may be moved by one wallet. It may depend on a single data source. It may resolve under wording that looks simple but creates edge-case risk. Or it may be reacting to information that is not yet public.
Professional teams need to know more than the price. They need to know whether the price can be trusted.
Every monitored market is evaluated across four practical dimensions. Each score is machine-readable, explainable, and API-accessible.
Measures whether the contract can settle without ambiguity, dispute, or source failure. We evaluate wording, oracle mechanism, settlement timing, source fragility, and the potential for data-source manipulation.
Measures whether the displayed price is actually usable. We evaluate spreads, order-book depth, recent trade concentration, estimated slippage, fee sensitivity, and maker/taker friction at professional position sizes.
Measures whether similar-looking markets across Polymarket and Kalshi are actually equivalent. We compare wording, resolution source, cutoff date, dispute process, oracle design, and category-specific edge cases.
Measures whether market movement looks unusual, concentrated, or disconnected from public information. We monitor sudden moves, new-wallet concentration, pre-announcement behavior, liquidity shocks, and clustered trades.
Beatpoly does not just return the latest price. It explains whether the market is usable, risky, distorted, or worth monitoring.
Beatpoly currently focuses on Kalshi and Polymarket markets with sufficient public data, clear market identifiers, and active liquidity. Coverage depth varies by category and market type. Custom watchlists are available for selected enterprise users. Request access to discuss coverage for your use case.
Prediction-market data is moving beyond retail trading. It is being used by journalists, analysts, investors, builders, and risk teams as a real-time signal for politics, macro events, culture, weather, and public decision-making.
As the category grows, the question is no longer only "What is the market price?" The more important question is: Can this market price be trusted?
The regulatory surface is also expanding. Enforcement cases involving insider trading, candidate self-betting, and alleged classified-information use have made prediction-market integrity a live compliance issue.
Prediction-market reliability measures whether a market price is useful and trustworthy for professional use. A reliable market has clear resolution rules, sufficient liquidity, low distortion, clean information flow, and limited settlement ambiguity. Beatpoly scores each dimension separately so teams understand exactly where risk is concentrated.
No. Beatpoly provides market reliability intelligence, risk scoring, and data-quality analysis. It is designed to help professional teams evaluate markets — not to provide personalized investment advice. A high-reliability rating does not mean a market is a profitable trade. It means the market's price is clean enough to use as a professional signal.
Beatpoly currently covers Polymarket and Kalshi, with additional venue coverage expanding as the platform matures. Cross-venue equivalence analysis requires at least two venues and is most useful where similar markets exist on both Polymarket and Kalshi simultaneously.
No. A lower reliability rating means the market price is harder to use or defend in a professional context — not that the market's directional information is necessarily incorrect. A thin, ambiguous, or abnormal market can still contain real information. The rating tells you how much caution to apply when relying on it.
Request access to Beatpoly's reliability engine for market monitoring, risk scoring, cross-venue analysis, and enterprise data enrichment.