Prediction Markets 101
FREEBeginnerWhat prediction markets are, how contracts work, why they outperform polls, and the statistical reality of why most participants lose money before they make a single trade.
Your Platforms: Kalshi & Polymarket
FREEBeginnerFull walkthroughs of both platforms — regulatory status, fee structures, settlement mechanics, and the differences that determine which strategies work where.
The Math Foundation
FREEIntermediateExpected value, the Favorite-Longshot Bias, the 72% NO Rule, and the crowd psychology biases that create exploitable mispricings every single day.
Core Strategies
IntermediateThe three edges that work every week. Built on platform mechanics, not prediction. The Free Donut, the 88¢ Rule, and Maker Edge.
Kalshi Strategies
IntermediateWeather trading, bond harvesting at 90¢+, EMOS-anchored entries, and the Ignorance Prior play on center brackets underpriced by 5–13 percentage points.
Polymarket Strategies
IntermediateThe 72% NO harvesting system, exploiting panic pricing via mean reversion, and political market mechanics. EV of buying NO at 50¢: +$0.22 per contract before fees.
Risk & Bankroll Management
IntermediateKelly Criterion, fractional sizing, and the discipline that separates survivors from statistics. The chapter most traders skip — and the reason most blow up.
Advanced & Algorithmic
AdvancedLatency arbitrage, order book mechanics, and automating the math. The 0x8dxd case study: $313 to $414k. For traders who want to go beyond manual execution.
Build a Polymarket Trading Bot
PREMIUMStep-by-step guide to building a fully automated Polymarket trading bot from scratch. API integration, strategy implementation, order execution, risk controls, and live deployment.
Build a Kalshi Trading Bot
PREMIUMBuild an automated Kalshi trading bot with the Free Donut and 88-Cent Rule strategies built in. Full API integration, EMOS model ingestion, collateral return exploitation, and live execution.