Three articles on the only subject that truly determines whether you are still trading six months from now. Takers lose 32%. Makers lose 10%. Sizing is the difference.
Kelly Criterion, fractional sizing, drawdown limits, and the discipline that separates survivors from statistics. The chapter most traders skip.
3 articles · INTERMEDIATE · Video breakdowns includedKelly Criterion explained simply. 90% win rate with flat betting blows up by trade 38. 60% win rate with 1/4 Kelly is still growing at trade 200. The logarithmic math of survival.
Step-by-step position sizing for any contract given bankroll and estimated edge. Why 1/4 Kelly is the standard and when to go lower. Full worked examples with real contract prices.
Distinguishing bad process from forecast bust. Using the Brier Score to measure edge objectively over time. The psychological framework that keeps systematic traders systematic.
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